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Authenticity is Everything
RR Auction completed on May 21, 2016
I like to track prices on the RR auctions as an indication of the market upper range
Specifically, I follow Rock bands of the 60's thru 80's (Stones, Floyd, Queen, Uriah Heep, U2, Asia, Yes (I do consider them Rock even though the R&R HoF does not, but that's a different subject)
I was surprised to see a few items going at a low end item bid (Queen in particular, had a faded Mercury signature, 3 other sold ones, but, hey, still a Mercury signature with a solid provenance. Saw some U2 CD (4 sigs) go for around $300 as well. a 4 signature Floyd only commanded $1300,,,, A Classic Heep (with Byron and Thain, their best lineup) went for $270 (last year an equivalent signed mag page had gone for $800)
Is there a bubble about to burst? Was this auction an anomaly? Is there value in waiting for the market to "crash" or correct itself?
I am not tracking the Beatles because they are an entire market in their own, although now my curiosity has been raised.
Thoughts?
(RR Auction 476, items 7300-74xx
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Nate on
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Hi Bernie. My personal opinion is that the pieces you mentioned are towards the lower end of the spectrum for those artists. So I think the results may show collectors getting a little more 'picky'. There were some great prices achieved for some of the better pieces, but I suppose there were more 'reasonable' prices than some previous music auctions. Is there a trend? Not sure one auction can tell us that.
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Permalink Reply by Paul on
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Speaking of Beatles, the Sgt pepper signed by 3 in the mid 80s sold in the high or mid 30 thousand. Outstanding!
Jim morrison sig sold for 14,000.
Cobain sold for 3800.
No bubble.
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Permalink Reply by Eric Keith Longo on
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If memory serves the 4-sig Floyd item had odd contrast and placement.
Eric
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Permalink Reply by Paul Hakimian on
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Other than it being signed by all 4,the picture was not good and the contrast and separation of the sigs were even worse.1300 was more than fair.The pieces you are pointing out are definitly low end in quality for the specific artists.
Everything Nate said I believe is true.I also agree with Paul.the bubble is fine.
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Permalink Reply by Corey Moylan on
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Agree with Paul here all the way. I'm sure you'll be able to scoop it up on eBay in a couple weeks listed at about 3—4k.
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Some interesting thoughts coming back. I think I can expand on a few:
1- Collectors are getting pickier. That would be consistent with the assessment. That also tells me there are less collectors and hence a possible bubble. I have a philosophy which may not be general, but helps me focus: If the premium being paid is for the autograph, then it is the autograph that matters most, not necessarily the medium. I can understand the thought of paying a premium for all autos on one medium (and hence my Floyd comment) but that would not be consistent with the Queen one (Again, Mercury is a very light, faded signature, but it can be made out, the other 3 are there, and RR had estimated "1000+" for their final price.
2- I have to say the Sgt Pepper (and I did caveat I treat the Beatles as a different category) going for ~$40,000 took me by surprise, since there is no John Lennon on it. Again, different tastes and value systems, and clearly a bidder who likely has acres of land planted with money trees, but I do not see much logic myself: The medium is common, the toughest ink is not there, and there are lots of 4 pack signatures which can be mounted with a Sgt Pepper background, so clearly the value system is different.
3- I realize the "best" examples are not going cheap, I see that, but not so long ago, getting all of U2 signatures on a medium was in the $700+ range, and now some of them go for less. Hard to tell "supply/demand" element since supply is not well defined, but, going back to an earlier reply: collectors getting pickier is an indication of reduced demand. In the case of the Beatles, Floyd,Queen, Stones, Cobain, etc, supply is what it is, there will not be more (real ones that is) made. U2 does not have that issue, so I chose not to use it to make my first point, but it is appropriate in taking this a level deeper.
4- There is a certain element that must be considered here: If some collector makes $1M+ per year, they will collect what they want, and, on their terms, so a premium piece (the right number of signatures, how it looks, scarcity, etc) will truly fetch 10% more than the second bidder was willing to pay for it. Some other ones, and I try to look at the "Joe 6 pack" type market, becomes a value proposition: Can you get the signatures as best as possible for the best price? I suggest that these are 2 separate markets. In the past, there has been a fair amount of "competition" for these items, but, look at the results and you will see lots of item which went unbid, some went for the first bid. That is the area of concern I am bringing up
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A member here gets high prices for his U2 graphs, that he gets in person.
It all comes down to collectibility, how rare the item is etc.
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Permalink Reply by Rich on
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This is a pretty ugly U2 signed CD. Cheap item, poor contrast, awful Edge autograph and a couple smudges on top of things. $300 is about right. Maybe high.
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OK, back in town so I can read a few more posts.
I also notice how RR is not (I did not see that a year ago) providing price estimates. For the most part, I think they tend to low ball them, as the majority of the items go for (far) more than the minimum ESTIMATE (not the minimum bid)
I am still puzzled by the Queen item. A rare item, a letter of provenance with it, and solid signatures for 3/4. Could barely make Mercury out, but, playing with contrast and brightness in Photoshop, can be made out, and "voila" a clos match to the 1976 signatures.
Not sure how to compare with the U2. Queen supply is what it is, U2's is increasing, I still think the item went in very low. Maybe my generation is getting older, passing on, and the millenials do not much care for history, but, all in all, I think the demand is dwindling.
Please do not use the Sgt Pepper's as a counter. I am still scratching my head on that one
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Definitely agreed on RR low balling on the estimates for the mid and lower end items. It seems like they don't feel it worth the effort to put much thought into them. It sure doesn't inspire much confidence seeing what should be $500+ items estimated, consistently, at $200, for example.
I don't think the sample size is large enough yet to make solid long term predictions, but there have been some shockingly low prices for items in recent times.
Of course, aside from the high end items, the prices for their music items have never seemed that great to me, especially taking into account the sales commissions, etc.
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I have "bottom fished" a few items, but mostly l do the entry level bid hoping for a low price. Needless to say, not effective,
I do not know what the psychology of "low balling" is when all they have to do is look at the last sales and trend the item based on that. Too much work I guess. Don't they realize they are doing their consignors a disservice?
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