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If there's one thing you learn at second-hand/thrift shops, it's that the perceived value of books plummets greatly in most cases. The $50 MSRP the base Dylan book is going for will plummet down to $15-20 for most online resale sources within a year.

There is no scenario where the autopen books will get an extra $550 value tacked on to them, particularly as the word is out and copies are being refunded. And that`s factoring in the novelty value, too.

I disagree. The first print run for the book was probably 500k copies, minimum.

Anything - and I do mean anything - which distinguishes a copy of this title from that vast supply makes it collectible. There are only 1000 copies from that vast number with the autopen, In the book-collecting community that makes it an exception and therefore 10 or 50 or 100 times more desirable than the "trade" first edition.

Mark my words - in 2 or 3 years (or maybe 5 - depends when he dies to some extent), there will be fake "autopen" copies being sold for $500 or above on ebay, lol, and some booksellers will be looking to get a lot more for the "real" deal.

I have come across numerous LE/signed versions of works from plenty of artists, big and small, that put unreasonable premiums on those copies -- which subsequently sank on the resale or secondary market. What you've brought up is actually a big problem right now in the collectibles market - the idea of "artificial scarcity", where titles that break from the norm are perceived to have some intrinsic value or collectible nature, but are being artificially propped up at the distributor level when there's nothing particularly notable about them.

The book is functionally the same as the $50 regular book, save for an additional (found out to be autopen) page and a different price that isn't reflected in the quality or nature of the book. If this was a special boxset that had some unique design or packaging, you might have more of a case, but there is no rational reason why a $50 title is suddenly going to be worth 10-12x more just because someone might believe that a fake signature is worth something. That isn't how it works -- not even the Gretzky autopen books I highlighted in a previous post have that scarcity, and those were a far fewer number and came out years before this Dylan release.

Let's agree to revisit this thread in 3 or 5 years and see what's what then.

I agree entirely with your point about "artificial scarcity" but isn't that the nature of collecting, to some extent - that many people attach a premium to exclusivity. It doesn't need a slipcase or even a number. If it is different in some way it is intrinsically "better".

Books will sometimes be changed in some minor way during production - for example, an incorrect ISBN might be amended, or a misprint in the text corrected. Even if the book is relatively undistinguished otherwise, when this information is revealed suddenly there will be interest and demand for that defective, elusive copy. It's the nature of the beast - there's no accounting for it  (except by psychologists, perhaps).

Indeed, we shall see. In slightly-related news, I hope this fiasco played a small part in Penguin Random House's decision to 86 their merger with S&S, which was announced this evening:. That would be the most delicious schadenfreude:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/penguin-simon-schuster-merger-scrappe...

In my 40+ years of collecting, I’ve learned that not everything that is rare commands a high price.  Quality plays a bigger part than scarcity when it comes to resale value.  Ideally, you want both, but scarcity alone isn’t always enough.

Let me ask you this: who is it that you imagine will pay $600 for this book, knowing that it is an autopen?  What is the target demographic for an item like that?  Because I can’t think of anyone in their right mind who would buy it at that kind of price.

There will always be yahoos offering stuff at inflated prices on eBay, but I’m not seeing punters queuing up to buy these.  Not book collectors.  Not Dylan collectors.  They don’t want them, certainly not at silly prices, because there’s no intrinsic worth in them beyond the novelty aspect.  Serious collectors pay premium prices for items with real historical significance, not novelties.

I’m a keen Dylan collector.  I own a couple of legit signed items from him; many rare records and CDs; rare concert memorabilia; even an acetate of unreleased music that once belonged to Bob himself.  I also collect signed first edition books by a host of different authors I’m interested in.  My point is, I’m not afraid to put my hand in my pocket for quality rarities.  In fact, I passed on a $1,000+ auction lot of rare Dylan concert tickets in order to buy this latest signed offering from Coles Books; a decision I’m now kicking myself over.  So, by your logic, I should be the target demographic you think exists for this autopen book.  But I’m not — because it’s little more than worthless crap.  I might pay £10 to £20 over the price of the standard edition, purely for the novelty aspect, but no more than that.

So, again, I pose the same question to you: who is it that you imagine will pay $600 for this book, knowing that it is an autopen?  If it’s not me, or another serious collector like me, who is it?

What I do believe we’ll see, in three-to-five years’ time, is these autopen books being passed off as legit, signed Dylan items, with the Simon & Schuster letter offered up as authentication.  They’ll be offered on eBay, and one or two may even find their way into auction houses.  The current furore will be forgotten, and one or two people will be fooled into believing they are buying a legit, signed Dylan book.  But no one in their right mind will pay a premium price knowing that it is autopen.

I'm not into sports any more.. haven't been for about 15 years, but I just looked up one of the first 1/1 auto cards I could find that sold on ebay.. The only one in existence??? not exactly.. Its an autographed clear sticker placed on a manufactured card.. so why do some sell for thousands and some sell for peanuts?? you are right in that there are many other factors aside from scarcity

https://www.ebay.com/itm/165779391046?hash=item269938c246%3Ag%3Ah9I...

This Dylan book is just a regular copy with an added autopenned tip-in page that comes with a book cover with a different barcode and price tag.. The regular book in general is nothing special. Why would anyone want to pay much extra for an added page with a mechanically placed signature? 

I am not a book collector, but as a former autographed sports card collector, I asked myself, would I go out of my way to locate and purchase a regular card just because it has a facsimile signature on it, or its a foil version and is slightly more limited? NAH... as a fan of a specific player, would I collect it? yep but I would look at it for what it really is, just another variation of one of his regular cards.. This book by Bob Dylan is just a regular book and the autopenned versions are just another variation. Lets say S&S pulled them at 50% sold.. there would be 450 out there in the wild. I have been pondering this since yesterday and honestly, if I was a Dylan completest, Id wait out the market and hope to find one for around $50 but if I was an insane completist, it would also mean I would have to collect all 17 variations lol.. 

The moment I found out we would be able to keep these books, I honestly did believe they would become collectors items. I was caught up in the hype and felt like I just won a major prize after winning a battle. You, Eric and a few others have opened my mind since then and I now see this item for what it really is.. I'm going to hold on to mine forever because of what we all have just been through. Its symbolic of a huge win against autopens. I've been a collector for about 30 years and with all that I've seen in my years of collecting, That is really special to me. The biggest Bob Dylan fan out there will never see it the way I do.. Nick passed on these but he was there fighting along with me, sending emails, posting comments.. If I was in his situation, id be upset for not scoring one, but I wouldn't pay any more than $50 to obtain a copy from the open market.

Hey Jason, to be honest I was a little upset but a lot more upset with Indigo, maybe because I'd ordered one from their and not S&S. I think had i bought one from S&S through Coles  i would have been kicking down S&S door in the UK and probably ended up being arrested ! I'm glad I stuck to my gut feeling and principles and that it was too good to be true.

I did want to buy an autopenned copy initially but for no more than the face value and after sleeping on it i'm not bothered at all now,  i could just as easily print a fake one off on my computer for free. 

The first one has already sold on ebay for $199 - clearly described as autopen.

Probably be  sat on for a few years and then sent to a  private auction house for somebody to buy for 5K 10K 20K or more totally unaware that is is fake as it comes with a Letter of Authenticity! 

You may be right 5816nick  but others will buy them for different reasons. Many Dylan fans, e.g. may reason that this is the closest they will ever get to his genuine autograph, not having the money to buy limited edition prints, e.g. 

Others will convince themselves that an autopen signature is an exact replica of someone's signature and better than nothing. etc

5 copies now sold on ebay, $399 probably the highest price realised - one seller accepted an offer below asking price of 599.

5 auctions underway and attracting plenty bids.

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