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I agree, Adam. Provenance is important, sometimes critical. Stories without solid evidence or documentation aren't reliable provenance.
Provenance used to be a very important part of authenticating until TPAs appeared. Then it became "only the autograph matters." We're always at least a step behind good forgers, so things like photos of the autograph from an auction or dealer catalog from 10-100 years ago help establish the age of the autograph. Those don't prove it's real, but they prove how long the autograph has been around, so you know you're not dealing with a recent forgery.
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