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Permalink Reply by Jason Poulos on May 26, 2024 at 12:31am

I don't have a definitive answer but I will say that I believe there are a fair number Lincoln autographs out there in private hands.  My personal thoughts with Presidential signatures is that people always assume they are much more rare than they really are.  

Lincoln autographs can be had with certification from one of the Big 3 for $5500 to $8000.  While that is steep for an autograph it is obtainable by most collectors.  It's not exactly like buying a rare piece of art where you have to be flush with cash.  Almost anyone could come up with 5500$ if they really wanted to add a Lincoln signature to their collection...*I have a 20k paypal credit line* So I could buy 3 😁 

Years ago someone told me that for every 1 of an item you see on ebay, there are 50 more not listed.  I call this the ebay x50 rule.

  For example 1952 Topps PSA 4 Mickey Mantle.  There are 4 listed on ebay so I would do 4x50 and I could assume there are 200 out in the world.  Thanks to the PSA pop report we know that 209 exist.  I have tried this method on things such as serial numbered sports cards and lithographs and it is usually pretty darn close.

So if we apply that same rule to Lincoln we can see 30 Lincoln autographs currently listed on ebay.  30x50 = 1500

So my guess would be about 1500 Lincoln autographs in private hands and a smaller number of historical documents being held by museums etc.

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Permalink Reply by JMS1223 on May 26, 2024 at 2:27am

That’s very interesting. I am currently looking to add a Lincoln signature to my collection but do not want to overpay. It’s difficult to find an authentic one but not overpay. I want a basic signature that is undoubtedly authentic but is around $5000. I will be patient and wait until the right one comes along.

I think it’s very interesting about the eBay x 50 rule. Never heard of that before but it makes sense. I always wondered how many of those Obama/Springsteen signed Renegades books there were. I had assumed it to be around 10,000. Now I can test that and see how many books and signatures removed from those books are on eBay and multiply that by 50. Will be very interesting if it comes to around 10,000. 

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Permalink Reply by Garrett Meadows on May 26, 2024 at 12:33pm

I've heard that some signed books often are auto-opens. I don't know about Obama and Springsteen. I did read that Michelle Obama's signed books used an autopen. I feel bad for those individuals who paid a premium price for what they thought was a genuinely signed Michelle Obama book. Although, I've been snookered several times. 

Like you, I'd like a Lincoln signature, but I'm still paying off a loan I made to purchase a JFK piece. 

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Permalink Reply by JMS1223 on May 26, 2024 at 1:00pm

I have seen both Barack Obama signed books (A Promised Land and Renegades) with Beckett and PSA authentications so I think they are legit. Also I never seen any of the signatures match from either book. The Springsteen signatures passed authentication too.

I would love to see the JFKs you purchased. I am also looking for a JFK but I want one that is undoubtedly authentic and around $1000-$1200 if one can be had for that much. But there are SOOOO many secretarial signatures and forgeries that he scares me. I am fine with a signed program or letter. A signed photo would be nice but I know those are much more expensive. 

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Permalink Reply by Jason Poulos on May 27, 2024 at 9:43pm

Exactly 101 Renegades books on the bay.  So I'd guess 5k made signed

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Permalink Reply by Garrett Meadows on May 26, 2024 at 12:27pm

Wow! Thanks for the detailed response. Very interesting "eBay Rule." 

As a pauper special education teacher, I have borrowed money to purchase a couple of nice JFK signed photos. That's the only way I could have gotten them. I'm currently paying off one of the two JFK pieces I own. Since I have to borrow money, I'm very selective about what I buy--preferably a one-off or non-traditional JFK image. 

I wouldn't mind owning a Lincoln signature. However, Lincoln signatures have been soaring in price. Sadly, I'd like a signed Lincoln photo. I'm sure those run in the five figures.

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Permalink Reply by JMS1223 on May 26, 2024 at 1:01pm

An Abraham Lincoln signed photo is a holy grail item for sure. I think only like 5 exist. If you ever get an authentic signed Lincoln photo that would be incredible. Good luck finding any under $50,000. 

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Permalink Reply by Garrett Meadows on May 28, 2024 at 7:51am

Well, that puts the kibosh on aspirations of owning a signed Lincoln photo. 

I won't participate in auctions for signatures. I'd much rather make a direct purchase. 

I learning my lesson when I purchased a JFK signed photo through an auction for $2500. Good price, you might say. Yes, it was a good price UNTIL all the "fees" were added on. In the end, I had to pay $3400! I was sick to my stomach. 

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Permalink Reply by Geoff LaVeine on May 29, 2024 at 8:02am

My 4th Great Grandfather, Andrew Jackson (AJ) Hanks [1815-1889] was a first cousin to Lincoln’s mother, Nancy Hanks. 

Andrew’s older brother John Hanks [1802-1889] is much more well known in history, as he was credited along with Richard Olgesby as coming up with the Railsplitter nickname at the 1860 Decatur wigwam, just ahead of the Republican state convention in Chicago, where Lincoln went on to be nominated for President. 

So as much as I would love a Lincoln signature as he is distantly related to me (2nd Cousin 5x removed), I really would love to have a John Hanks piece except for the fact he was illiterate and signed documents with an X. Oh well…

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