Fraser's 100 Index of Rare Autograph Prices: Do the Numbers Add Up?

Autograph Magazine Live! member Chris "Mak" was gloating on Facebook this morning about what a great investment his autographs have been:

"For all of you who think I am crazy for collecting memorabilia and autographs. They have the best return as of late, second only to gold!"

Chris shared the latest Frazer's 100 Index, which has tracked the value of a stable of 100 autographs since 1997. The numbers are pretty impressive. According to the index, autographs that were worth a total of £80,720 in 1997 would be worth £337,650 today...over $553,000. That's almost 420% over 13 years.

So here's what I'd like to know:

Are the index's prices reasonable indications of market value?
What about the percentage increases in value from 1997 to 2010?
What are your feelings of autographs as investments?

Here's the index:

Investment Indices

The ability to track long-term historic prices is invaluable to any investor. That is why we launched our indices. They are such a useful investing tool that Bloomberg started listing them on their Bloomberg Professional service at the start of 2008.

Personality	Type	1997	2010	Inc%
Abba	sp	£325	£1,250	284.6%
Al Pacino	sp	£50	£295	490.0%
Ali, Muhammad	sp	£175	£1,750	900.0%
Apollo 11	sp	£1,750	£11,000	528.6%
Armstrong, Neil	sp	£475	£5,500	1057.9%
Astaire & Rogers	sp	£575	£1,950	239.1%
Beach Boys	sp	£775	£1,750	125.8%
Beatles - album page	aps	£2,750	£9,500	245.5%
Beatles, The	sp	£4,950	£24,500	394.9%
Bolan, Marc	aps	£275	£1,250	354.5%
Brando, Marlon	sp	£875	£3,000	242.9%
Cagney, James	sp	£175	£750	328.6%
Callas, Maria	sp	£500	£1,750	250.0%
Carpenters	sp	£275	£1,950	609.1%
Caruso, Enrico	sp	£500	£1,750	250.0%
Casablanca	aps	£1,400	£3,950	182.1%
Castro, Fidel	sp	£300	£3,950	1216.7%
Chagall, Marc	sp	£375	£975	160.0%
Chaplin, Charlie	sp	£1,200	£3,750	212.5%
Churchill, Winston	sp	£2,500	£6,950	178.0%
Clapton, Eric	sp	£85	£750	782.4%
Clarke, Jim	aps	£750	£1,950	160.0%
Clint Eastwood	aps	£50	£350	600.0%
Dad's Army	aps	£250	£1,600	540.0%
Dali, Salvador	sp	£300	£1,500	400.0%
Dickens, Charles	aps	£750	£3,950	426.7%
Disney, Walt	sp	£395	£5,500	1292.4%
Dylan, Bob	sp	£875	£1,950	122.9%
Edward & Wallis Windsor	aps	£750	£1,200	60.0%
Einstein, Albert	aps	£1,700	£9,500	458.8%
England 1966	sp	£1,200	£4,500	275.0%
Fleetwood Mac	sp	£675	£1,500	122.2%
Flynn, Errol	aps	£450	£1,250	177.8%
Gagarin, Yuri	sp	£375	£1,750	366.7%
Garland, Judy	sp	£1,500	£2,500	66.7%
Grace, W G	sp	£1,200	£2,950	145.8%
Grant, Cary	sp	£400	£1,950	387.5%
Hanna Barbara	sp	£250	£600	140.0%
Harrison, George	sp	£175	£2,250	1185.7%
Hendrix, Jimi	aps	£975	£4,500	361.5%
Hepburn, Audrey	sp	£850	£1,750	105.9%
Hepburn, Katharine	sp	£325	£1,500	361.5%
Hitchcock, Alfred	sp	£775	£2,950	280.6%
Hitler, Adolf	sp	£3,950	£6,950	75.9%
Holly, Buddy	aps	£375	£2,750	633.3%
Houdini, Harry	sp	£1,000	£4,950	395.0%
James Dean	sp	£1,500	£14,000	833.3%
Johnny Depp	sp	£50	£295	490.0%
Joplin, Janis	aps	£950	£1,950	105.3%
Kelly, Grace	sp	£850	£1,750	105.9%
Kennedy, Jacqueline	aps	£475	£1,950	310.5%
Kennedy, John F	aps	£1,750	£4,750	171.4%
Laurel & Hardy	sp	£400	£3,500	775.0%
Lee, Bruce	aps	£1,500	£15,000	900.0%
Leigh, Vivien	sp	£575	£1,950	239.1%
Lennon, John	aps	£675	£5,950	781.5%
Lugosi, Bela	sp	£400	£2,500	525.0%
Madonna	sp	£350	£895	155.7%
Marley, Bob	sp	£850	£3,250	282.4%
Martin Luther King Jnr	sp	£750	£4,250	466.7%
Marvin Gaye	sp	£325	£1,300	300.0%
MASH	sp	£675	£1,750	159.3%
McCartney, Paul	sp	£125	£1,500	1100.0%
Monroe, Marilyn	aps	£2,750	£6,750	145.5%
Monty Python	sp	£225	£1,950	766.7%
Moon Walkers	aps	£1,800	£11,000	511.1%
Morrison, Jim	aps	£1,500	£3,500	133.3%
Mother Teresa	sp	£475	£1,250	163.2%
Napoleon Bonaparte	aps	£750	£4,500	500.0%
Nelson	aps	£1,500	£9,500	533.3%
Newman, Paul	sp	£175	£1,750	900.0%
Pele	sp	£100	£950	850.0%
Phoenix, River	sp	£250	£950	280.0%
Picasso, Pablo	sp	£1,250	£8,500	580.0%
Presley, Elvis	sp	£600	£3,750	525.0%
Princess Diana	sp	£1,200	£9,500	691.7%
Queen Elizabeth II	sp	£1,200	£2,250	87.5%
Queen	sp	£650	£1,750	169.2%
Queen Mother	aps	£275	£1,500	445.5%
Queen Victoria	aps	£325	£995	206.2%
Robert De Niro	sp	£50	£295	490.0%
Rolling Stones	sp	£900	£5,500	511.1%
Rowling, J K	book	£330	£1,750	430.3%
Schulz, Charles	sp	£775	£1,950	151.6%
Schumacher, Michael	sp	£100	£450	350.0%
Senna, Ayrton	sp	£600	£1,600	166.7%
Sex pistols - incl Sid	aps	£1,750	£3,500	100.0%
Shackleton, Ernest	aps	£750	£1,500	100.0%
Sherlock Holmes - Rathbone & Bruce	aps	£575	£950	65.2%
Sinatra, Frank	sp	£775	£1,750	125.8%
Star Trek	sp	£1,250	£1,950	56.0%
Star Wars	sp	£675	£1,950	188.9%
Starr, Ringo	sp	£175	£850	385.7%
Taylor, Elizabeth	sp	£185	£950	413.5%
Warhol, Andy	sp	£175	£1,950	1014.3%
Wayne, John	sp	£1,500	£1,950	30.0%
Who, The	sp	£475	£3,950	731.6%
Wilde, Oscar	aps	£850	£5,500	547.1%
Williams, Robbie	sp	£75	£350	366.7%
Woods, Tiger	sp	£950	£1,750	84.2%

		£80,720	£337,650	318.3%

Fraser's 100	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Total	£80,720	£95,905	£114,535	£136,625	£161,960	£192,745	£197,570
Increase		£15,185	£18,630	£22,090	£25,335	£30,785	£4,825
Cumulative Increase %		18.8%	41.9%	69.3%	100.6%	138.8%	144.8%
Annual Increase %		18.8%	19.4%	19.3%	18.5%	19.0%	2.5%

Fraser's 100	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Total	£218,465	£245,610	£264,760	£287,855	£306,500	£314,965	£337,650
Increase	£20,895	£27,145	£19,150	£23,095	£18,645	£8,465	£22,685
Cumulative Increase %	170.6%	204.3%	228.0%	256.6%	279.9%	290.2%	318.3%
Annual Increase %	10.6%	12.4%	7.8%	8.7%	6.5%	2.8%	7.2%

Average compound increase of 11.64% over the 13 year period

About The Frasers 100 Autograph Price Index

The Frasers 100 Autograph Price Index was designed to provide the definite measure of overall market performance and a yardstick against which to measure individual increases within the market for autographs and memorabilia. It serves to highlight the real price increases being achieved, especially amongst the rarer and more desirable items.

The index covers the full range of collecting themes and provides an objective measure of the current state of the market. All prices quoted are for outstanding examples in superb condition for 100 of the world's most sought after and frequently traded autographs and includes selected items from all major collecting areas.

Key: sp = Undedicated signed photograph
aps = Undedicated album page signature

Remember – you can contact us for advice at any time on 0845 126 7170 or email investment@stanleygibbons.com

View Frasier's index plus investment advice on their Web site:

http://www.frasersautographs.com/frasers/view/content/fr_page_frase...

Comment by Richard S. Simon on April 21, 2011 at 4:57am: Are they kidding with those prices?

Comment by roger epperson on April 21, 2011 at 5:09am: Richard, my thought exactly. Those prices are just plain ridiculous. Did they just write high prices on sheets of paper, throw them in a hat and draw them out? Yes prices have gone up on lots of items but not like that. Are autographs good investment; my customers seem to think so and have gotten a nice return on many of their items.

Comment by Lou reves on April 21, 2011 at 5:37am: those wacky fereners! they got us again! But its not april fools day!

Comment by Steve Cyrkin, Admin on April 21, 2011 at 7:35am: What about the percentage increases, based on their 1997 prices listed? Even though their prices seem high in most cases, what if we looked at their prices like Scott's Stamp Catalog prices...or the prices in other price catalogs, where the listings may be at high retail? Where are the percentage increases in line, low or high on this list?

Comment by Brandon Mysinger on April 21, 2011 at 10:13am: As always, no matter what the price that is listed, a collectible is only worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

People price many autographs based on the "book value" mostly, these items sit unsold which brings in 0% in revenu much less profit.

Comment by BallroomDays67 on April 21, 2011 at 4:48pm: The prices listed for Jim Morrison's autograph are high, but the percentage increase may actually be quite low. Based on what I've seen, the price of an endorsed check has gone up at least 200% over that period of time.

Comment by Rich on April 22, 2011 at 3:19pm: Fraser's numbers are worthless for a number of reasons, starting with the fact that their own prices are inflated up to wazoo for absolutely no good reason.

Comment by Steve Zarelli on April 22, 2011 at 4:53pm: YES! My MASH cast photo is worth almost $3,000!!!!

;-)

Comment by DP on April 23, 2011 at 3:38pm: Maybe I should contact them and start offering them some pieces and see if they are buyers at those levels.

Comment by Steve Cyrkin, Admin on April 23, 2011 at 4:12pm: David, allow a discount for normal dealer markup.

Fraser's 100 Index of Rare Autograph Prices: Do the Numbers Add Up?

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