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Please help me understand the value of collectibles

What got me to write this was the recent sale of a Derek Jeter SP Foil rookie card graded Gem Mint 10 by PSA for $99,100. Personally, as far as cards go, I’d rather have a PSA 1 Mickey Mantle rookie than the Jeter rookie PSA 10, but that’s me.

Now, the Jeter rookie 10, according to PSA, is one of only 22 graded so highly. Ok, I agree. That’s rare. And the biggest determining factor of price is...supply AND demand.

Well, I have something that, while I don’t know for certain, I believe is likely more rare than the Jeter 10. If you’ve looked through the Prince autograph forum, you will see where I’ve talked about my rare Prince-signed poster. The poster itself is rare and the fact that it’s signed makes it even more rare. I have a picture of the poster in the Prince forum. It’s what I’ve called Prince’s “rookie” poster. It’s from Prince’s first studio album, “Prince - For You”. My understanding is that these posters were only distributed to radio stations in the Twin Cities area in 1978 when no one knew who Prince was. I’ve read that the poster is scarce and hard to find...even unsigned. So how many of these posters exist that were signed by Prince? While I don’t know for sure (and obviously that’s key), I’m very confident that there are likely less than twenty, very likely even less than ten. Could this be the only one that’s signed that has survived? And I’ve read that, for Prince collectors, anything from 1978 is cherished.

So, I know (believe) that the supply of my Prince poster is low, and the demand for Prince autographs is high. But do I think I could get $100,000 for it if I decided to sell it right now? No, I don’t. Not that much. So far, this is the only “rookie” Prince-signed poster I have seen. It could be the only one in existence. But certainly rarity alone doesn’t set price. For instance, I could right now sign my name on a dirty sock and proclaim it to be the only James (last name) signed dirty sock in existence in the world, and it would sell for...not even a penny. For value’s sake, rarity needs to be married to demand. Because no one wants my signed dirty sock...not even me. But I do know that people want signed Prince posters.

But would someone want my Prince-signed poster for $100,000? If you’re out there, let me know! I’m happy keeping it myself, however. But to me at least, my Prince poster is much more desirable than a Jeter rookie Gem Mint 10. So why couldn’t I get $100,000 for it even though it’s probably more rare than the Jeter card? Please help me understand.

Also...as a disclaimer, I hope i don’t appear to be bragging about my poster. That’s not my intent.

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Permalink Reply by James on June 25, 2018 at 8:23pm

A Michael Jordan rookie PSA Gem Mint 10 sold for $20,600 on June 19th and another one for $22,999.99 on the 20th. But 10-15 years ago or so didn’t these get all the way up to like $35,000 or so? I’m guessing the population count on Jordan 10s has gone up significantly enough that it’s brought the price down somewhat.

I was at a card show about 20 years ago in Kansas City, and PSA was at the show grading cards. A man brought in a 1986 Fleer Jordan rookie to have graded. Right there on the spot, PSA graded it a Gem Mint 10! Needless to say, the guy was elated. Well, it didn’t take long before someone at the show offered him $14k for it, and he took it. Some people thought he sold it too low, but he seemed pleased. Actually, I remember his saying that he had either gotten it out of a pack way back when or had bought it years ago for next to nothing, so it was pretty much pure profit. He had just held onto it for years and kept it in great shape. But it wasn't more than a few years later when they started going for over $30k if I remember right.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Cyrkin, Admin on June 25, 2018 at 9:17pm

Great story. I haven't been paying attention to card prices until recently. Never cared before.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Cyrkin, Admin on June 25, 2018 at 9:26pm

There's a Tom Brady PSA10 rookie for $1,500,000...

https://www.ebay.com/i/192205483426

Same seller has two other Bradys at $450K and $500K.

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Permalink Reply by James on June 25, 2018 at 10:38pm

Thanks for the link. Amazing prices. Since my interest income this month is about $1.6 mil., I think I’ll probably go ahead and pick up the Brady PSA 10 tonight or tomorrow.

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Permalink Reply by James on June 25, 2018 at 10:39pm

I wish! Lol.

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Permalink Reply by Joe W. on June 26, 2018 at 4:44am

Call me a party pooper but I think the world has gone mad with the kind of prices being paid for this stuff. 30K? 100K? 1M+? What of waste. For vanity? Pride? Adults who never grew up I guess.

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Permalink Reply by James on June 26, 2018 at 4:26pm

Some people just have too much money in their pockets, and they’ve got everything else...so why not get a really nice baseball card? Lol.

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Permalink Reply by posterguy on June 26, 2018 at 4:52am

Even 10k is a lot of $ for the average Joe :p

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Permalink Reply by Eric Keith Longo on June 26, 2018 at 6:12am

Grade/condition rarities...subjective. PSA says, PSA says. If you use PSA Facts Page for exemplars to buy your Gleason you could well end up buying a secretarial.

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Permalink Reply by James on June 26, 2018 at 3:56pm

And the average James! ;)

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Permalink Reply by TradeGeek on June 26, 2018 at 3:12pm

Ya, supply and demand doesn't always result in intuitive results. That particular Jeter card has several things going for it that are not typical.

1. The card itself is not rare. Everybody pulled one (or two, or three) and they were almost ALL flaking right out of the pack. Today one can buy a copy is average condition (NM, as most came out of the pack) for about $100. Gem Mint are nearly impossible to find. This has had people searching through collections of 99.9% worthless collections of cards for 20 years, hoping to find a Mint or better Jeter (Mint copies sell for over $3000). High grade versions of the card have been subject to decades of chasing. This has made it iconic in the hobby.

2. It is one of the only iconic cards from 1980 through 2000. The lost 20 years of the "junk era" produced only a handful (maybe a dozen) cards that not only have value but are still must haves for most collectors. There are HOF players who don't have a baseball card of ANY value. Barry Larkin, Mike Piazza, Jim Thome... their best cards can be had for $20 or less.

3. Jeter was a Yankee.

4. Yes, I would rather have a 52 Topps Mantle Graded 1 as well. However, I will GUARANTEE that the person who paid nearly $100K for that Jeter, already has a 52 Topps Mantle. Collectors who chase those kinds of cards, want all of iconic cards. I'm sure it went right next to the high grade 52 Mantle, T206 Cobb, 1915 Crackerjack Joe Jackson... ect. ect.

Like your poster, there are awesome items that are vastly more rare. They just aren't on the bucket list of some hyper wealthy collectors who want the iconic and unattainable in any given hobby. And they will pay nearly any price for it.